Iran

The article linked here, titled “August 22, Does Iran Have Something in Store?” is well worth the read. I’m getting around to this a bit late as the article was published in the WSJ on August 8, 2006, and the date the article speculates about is tomorrow, however it still has interesting insight into the nature of the Islamist Fascist movement and Iran specifically. The article, by Bernard Lewis a well respected professor Emeritus at Princeton who is considered one of the preeminent authorities on the Middle East, describes that the probability of a nuclear encounter with Iran is far greater than it was during the Cold War. His reasoning is that during the Cold War there was the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction. If one side started launching warheads, the other would reciprocate, and soon there would be nothing left. Lewis claims that this theory is useless now because we are dealing with an enemy that sees destruction as positive an outcome as victory. He sites an example of this thinking:

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

His ultimate conclusion is that, while there’s a good chance it won’t happen, something big could happen on August 22. Why? The article reads:

This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back ( c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

While the August 22 date is interesting and makes sense, tomorrow will most likely not be the day that there is a major cataclysmic event, but it certainly is a starting point. Last week Iran began test firing missiles and announced a new military buildup called “Zolfaghar Blow" after the two-point sword of Ali, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammed. Today the news stories are that Iran is refusing to end its nuclear program (this has been the stance for awhile, but the deadline is now upon us). Iran is definitely building up for a fight and the scary thing is the leadership welcomes it. While I would hesitate to call this extreme ideology the majority opinion in the Muslim world, it certainly is not one solely relegated to the fringes as is evidenced by the radical nature of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric (calling the holocaust a myth and speaking of awaiting the return of the 12th Imam). So, how do you combat an enemy that has no fear of dying and in fact welcomes it? How do we approach Iran? We’ve already made it clear we won’t accept a nuclear Iran, however another war is certainly not something we could handle right now and would be amazingly difficult. Let’s hope diplomacy works, because we’re right on the brink here.